There’s not much to say about my first medal predictions. Those were pretty much taken away with the first USA vs. Canada game. I had picked Canada to win gold, Russia to win silver, and Sweden to win bronze, but a couple of upsets made that impossible.

But, that’s hockey. It’s very easy to say that the favorite is going to win the Gold Medal, but it’s very hard to say that there’s going to be an upset or two. I don’t know how many people would have said that Sweden (or Russia) would have lost to Slovakia, or Canada would have lost to the United States.

With that said, I’m going to make some predictions about the Gold Medal game between the US and Canada. Canada is still the favorite, and a bit of an obvious pick, but Team USA proved last time that anything can happen in the Olympics. If the United States wins, it will be an upset because Canada has better depth and more talent.

However, that’s not the only thing Canada will have in this game. There’s one thing that the Canadians have this time that they didn’t have the first time. This time, they have a bigger incentive to win. After the last game with the United States, Canada was taught the harsh reality that even if you’re a favorite, you still have to play every game well. The Gold Medal game will be a “redemption” game for Team Canada.

That factor alone could cause the game to be a blowout. Canada wants this medal more than any country ever could. Couple that with the fact that the United States has been making some mistakes in their games over the entire tournament, and you get a ton of goals for Canada.

Another factor in tomorrow’s game will be goaltending. After the loss to the United States, Canada pulled goalie Martin Brodeur and replaced him with Roberto Luongo. With Luongo in net, they have seen better results.

Goaltending is also the greatest advantage for the United States, and one of the few places that they have the advantage. Ryan Miller is better than any goalie on Canada’s roster, and in my opinion, is the best goalie currently in the NHL. He currently owns the second best save percentage in the NHL (93.0%) and the second best goals against average (2.16). His play in the Olympics has also been lights out. Miller definitely stole a win from Canada the last time they met, and will be a big factor in how well the United States fairs in the Gold Medal game tomorrow.

Although my predictions for Team USA finishing in fifth place were simply wrong, my prediction on Miller being the biggest factor in how well they do was correct. The first time they played each other, Canada peppered Miller with over 40 shots. That includes a ton of scoring opportunities towards the end of the game where Miller came through with some huge saves that many goalies would have missed.

If the United States wants to win the Gold, Miller will have to play another great game. However, I don’t think that the United States will be able to defeat the Canadians again. Canada simply has more depth and more talent. More importantly, they have the “will power” that they didn’t have in the round-robin tournament. That should provide a huge difference in Canada’s effort, and also be a big factor in how tomorrow’s game ends up.

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